Today's Mortgage Rate Summary
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Rates Currently Trending: Lower
Mortgage rates are moving lower so far today. The MBS market improved by +11 bps yesterday. This may've been enough to improve mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced average volatility yesterday.
Today's Rate Forecast: Lower
Jobs: Continuing Jobless Claims were lower than expected (2.087M vs est of 2.118M) and the Weekly Jobless Claims data was also lower than expected (247K vs est of 255K). The more closely watched four week moving average dropped to 256,500 from 256,750.
Inflation: One measure is the cost of things coming into the U.S. Import Prices did rise 0.4% in December but that is almost half the pace of market expectations of 0.7%.
Treasury Auction: We have had solid auctions so far this week. Today, we get the most important one - 30-year bond auction which is important for mortgage rates.
Fed: Pilly Fed President Pat Harker (voting member this year, was not in 2016) said that he expects three rate hikes this year and that we are at or near full healthy employment. Overall, it was a upbeat Message.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voting member) said that he does not expect Trump's policies to have much impact on the economy this year. And he sees no reason to "dramatically raise rates" this year.
Still up is Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (new voting member this year), Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voting member) and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (non-voting member) at 12:30 EST.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Average
We're looking for average mortgage rate volatility today. So far today we've see some good gains in the MBS market (lower mortgage rates) and we don't expect any news today that should reverse that trend.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Sean Selters | Senior Mortgage Loan Originator | 303-835-0635 | SSelters@EnvoyMortgage.com | www.EnvoyMortgageColorado.com | www.ApplyWithSean.com | Envoy Mortgage, Ltd | NMLS ID# 6666 | CO Disclosure: "Envoy Mortgage, LTD. – Mortgage Company Registration – NMLS #6666; 5100 Westheimer Road, Suite 320, Houston, TX 77056 ; Phone Number (877) 232-2461 – Regulated by the Department of Real Estate and UCCC Supervised Lenders License #992232 | To check the license status of your mortgage loan originator, visit http://www.dora.state.co.us/real-estate/index.htm." www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org http://envoymortgage.com/licensing-and-legal-information/