Mortgage Market Guide: Mortgage Market Guide: August Jobs Report Disap
Mortgage Marketing Guide:
Mortgage Market Guide: August Jobs Report Disappoints.
|In This Issue...|
Last Week in Review: The Jobs Report for August came in worse than expected, but Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates hovered near some of their best levels of the year.
Forecast for the Week: Look for news on jobless claims, retail sales and consumer sentiment—all in the second half of the week.
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|Last Week in Review|
"Get used to disappointment." While the Jobs Report for August was a disappointment, hopefully that quote from the classic movie The Princess Bride won't apply to additional reports later this year.
Here are the highlights. The Labor Department reported that 142,000 jobs were created in August, far below the 223,000 expected and the recent trend of 215,000 plus job creations per month in 2014. Adding insult to the report was a downward revision to June, showing that 28,000 less jobs were created than previously reported.
The Unemployment Rate fell to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent, but that's not much of a silver lining considering that the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) also fell to 62.8 percent, matching 36-year lows. The LFPR measures the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, and it should be moving higher in a recovery. This was not a good report, but historically August non-farm payrolls have been prone to sharp revisions higher as many households and businesses fail to respond to the government surveys. It will be important to monitor this report in the coming months, to see if this report was a one-off, or the start of a disappointing trend in the labor sector.In housing news, research firm CoreLogic reported that home prices, including distressed sales, rose by 7.41 percent on an annual basis in July, marking the twenty-ninth consecutive month of year-over-year home price gains. However, prices are still nearly 12 percent below the peak set in April 2006.
And in news overseas, the debt crisis in Europe and continued uncertainty in other regions like the Middle East and Ukraine have helped Mortgage Bonds benefit from a safe haven trade. As a result, home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds, remain near some of their best levels of the year.
The bottom line is that now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
|Forecast for the Week|
| Economic reports are few and far between this week, all occurring in the second half of the week.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
To go one step further—a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds reached some of their best levels of the year, meaning home loan rates are hovering near twelve-month lows. I'll continue to monitor them closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday September 5, 2014)
Questions, Comments or For more information you can email Christian Penner at TheMortgageTeam@ChristianPenner.com or visit us online at www.ChristianPenner.com or you can call us directly at: 561-316-6800
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