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Mortgage Market Guide: September Retail Sales Shine

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Retails Sales, Home Price, Home Prices, Fed Holiday

Mortgage Market Guide: September Retail Sales Shine

  In This Issue
     
 

Last Week in Review: September’s Retail Sales may signal brighter days leading up to the biggest shopping season of the year.

Forecast for the Week: Housing and consumer inflation data will be watched.

View: Try these four strategies to earn expert status in your industry.

 
     
  Last Week in Review
     
 

“Happy ever after in the marketplace.” The Beatles. Following a disappointing back-to-school shopping season, consumers made retailers happier in September.

After declining in August, Retail Sales surged by 0.6 percent in September, which signals the consumer is alive and well as we head into the crucial holiday shopping season. The increase was led by ramped-up sales for autos and increasing fuel costs at gas stations. The positive September news follows a 0.2 percent loss in August and a slight gain of 0.1 percent in July.

Meanwhile, the release of September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes revealed a stronger resolve to raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rate soon. This is the rate at which banks lend money to one another overnight. With weak Gross Domestic Product and muted inflation heading into September’s meeting, incoming economic data will be a crucial determining factor on the timing of future action by the Fed.

Speaking of inflation, wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected due to higher energy and food costs, as the September Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3 percent. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.2 percent, above the 0.1 percent expected. Inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds. On an annual basis, PPI has risen just 0.7 percent, which shouldn’t put much pressure on the more closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, it will be important to watch how inflation trends in upcoming reports. When inflation rises, it can impact home loan rates, since it is tied to Mortgage Bonds.

For now, home loan rates are still something to be happy about, remaining near all-time lows for those considering a home purchase or refinance.

If you or someone you know has any questions about home loan rates or products, please don’t hesitate to contact me. I’m happy to help.

 
     
  Forecast for the Week
     
 
After weaker-than-expected housing data in the past month, the sector will be watched for signs of a pickup. Consumer inflation will be too.
  • Manufacturing data from the Empire State Index and the Philadelphia Fed Index will be reported on Monday and Thursday, respectively.
  • In the housing sector, look for the NAHB Housing Market Index on Tuesday, Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday, and Existing Home Sales on Thursday.
  • The Consumer Price Index will be reported on Tuesday.
  • The Fed’s Beige Book will be released on Wednesday.
  • As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday, as initial claims have been at 43-year lows.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, although Mortgage Bonds declined in recent weeks they managed to stabilize, keeping home loan rates in historically low territory.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 14, 2016)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
 
     
  The Mortgage Market Guide View…
     
 

Expert Status in Record Time

New business is inevitable for industry experts. Here are four ways to earn expert status in your field and win more business.

Be a guest blogger. Online publications are always hungry for content. Find publications in your niche and start offering your services as a guest blogger. When you give away your best secrets for free, people will wonder what other magic you’ve got up your sleeve.

Publish an e-book. While you could write a full-length book, it’s not absolutely necessary to go through the hassle of publishing. E-books are popular and easy to produce with free online templates for Microsoft Word. Whether the length is a few pages or long-form content, both give you traction if the content is helpful and meaningful to your audience. You can promote it on your social media channels, website and in your email signature.

Make an appearance. Local television, radio and newspapers are also hungry for content. Offer your expertise based on trends in your specific market. If they like you, you could become a regular. Make sure to get snippets of the audio and video that features you, so you can re-promote on your social media pages and website.

Speak up. Speaking opportunities are everywhere, from community education courses to civic and professional organizations to local events. Focus on those teaching opportunities, organizations or events where you’re likely to find either your ideal clients or people who can connect you to your ideal clients.

Remember, whenever you produce original content, you should link to it everywhere you have a presence: your website, social media pages, email signature, and referral partner email lists. Make your content known. When you do, you’ll have expert status fast!

Please feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.

Source: American Express OPEN Forum

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 17 – October 21
September Retail Sales Shine

 

 

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Questions, Comments or For more information you can contact Christian Penner at: Call/Text: (561) 373-0987 or visit us online at www.ChristianPenner.com

The Christian Penner Mortgage Team, A Branch of 
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