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Mortgage Market Guide: Home Sales on the Up and Up

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Mortgage Market Guide: Home Sales on the Up and Up

  In This Issue  

Last Week in Review: New and Existing Home Sales up in May.

Forecast for the Week: Spectators will watch to see if inflation is a tame or wild beast as the data circus opens next week.

View: Be decisive with these proven decision-making models.

Last Week in Review  

“We always wanted a big two story house.” George Jones and Tammy Wynette. Families are finding homebuying success even with limited inventory.


May Existing Home Sales edged higher 1.1 percent from April to an annual rate of 5.62 million units, above the 5.52 million expected. Sales were up 2.7 percent from May 2016. Despite the increase, low inventories continue to be a problem with supply at a 4.2-month level.

May New Home Sales surged. The Commerce Department reported that New Home Sales in May jumped nearly 3 percent from April to an annual rate of 610,000, above the 599,000 expected. From May 2016 to May 2017, sales were up almost 9 percent with May being the second highest tally of 2017. Tight inventories of just a 4.6-month supply pushed the median price to a record $345,800. For both new and existing home sales, a healthier inventory level is a six-month supply.

Whether looking to purchase a first home, downsize or move into a dream home at this time, home loan rates remain near historic lows.

If you or someone you know has any questions about the home loan process or current rates, please contact me today. I’d be happy to help.

Forecast for the Week  
In a wild week of data releases, the Federal Reserve and investors will be watching to see if inflation remains tame.
  • Manufacturing data serves as the bookends for the week, kicking off on Monday with Durable Goods Orders followed by the Chicago PMI on Friday.
  • Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday while the Consumer Sentiment Index comes out on Friday.
  • Pending Home Sales will be delivered on Wednesday.
  • Thursday brings the final read on first quarter Gross Domestic Product along with weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
  • The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, will be released on Friday along with Personal Income and Personal Spending.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have been trading in a sideways holding pattern.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jun 23, 2017)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…  

4 Smart Decision-Making Models

Whether you want to make a career move, hire an assistant or advance your education, at some point you’ve got to make a decision. With so many factors to consider, how can you be sure the decision you’re making will be sound? Decision-making frameworks can help you organize data and assist you in making the best decision possible.

The Ben Franklin method is one of the oldest and best-known decision-making frameworks. This simple method consists of listing pros and cons, weighting them in terms of importance or impact, and then making a decision after reflection. The tendency is to rush the first step, but Franklin suggested creating the pros-and-cons list over time, rather than in one sitting.

The regret-minimization framework made famous by Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos, attempts to bypass short-term thinking. When he was struggling over the decision to abandon his high-paying Wall Street job to launch the first online bookstore, Jeff asked himself a simple question: “When I’m 80 years old, what will I regret the most?” Considering what you might regret can help you make life decisions that count.

Warren Buffet’s circle of competence method suggests that staying with something you’re sure of is often more effective than spreading yourself too thin, trying to improve your weaknesses, or venturing into something with a steep learning curve. Evaluate decisions based on your core competencies.

Based on the Pareto Principle, or the 80/20 rule, a Pareto analysis challenges you to prioritize problems, identify root causes, score the problems, group problems by similar root causes and then determine the course of action that will deliver the biggest positive result.

Using decision-making frameworks won’t guarantee every decision will turn out perfectly, but can help lower the chances of making a poor one.

Sources: Inc., SmartDraw, Business News Daily

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 26 – June 30




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Questions, Comments or For more information you can contact Christian Penner at: (561) 316-6800 or Office Text Line: 561-530-2223 - visit us online at www.ChristianPenner.com

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Christian Penner
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Buyer Referral Hotline: (561) 316-6800 | Office Text Line: (561) 530-2223