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Jupiter Home Sales Fall Dramatically.....Again

Second straight significant fall for Jupiter home sales

It was exactly one month ago we showed you how the decline in pending home sales were finally affecting Jupiter home sales and those in the neighboring communities of the Northern Palm Beaches. We told you to expect more weakness until our northern visitors return and start pulling the trigger on purchases. Thirty days ago we reported a decline of 21% in Jupiter home sales but that was on the heels of the biggest monthly sales total we had ever seen and frankly no big deal.

As we sit here today, Jupiter homes sales dropped another 22% from last month's levels. A full 39% below where we stood on August 1st. These are huge numbers, big declines and a bit disconcerting. All of a sudden we have to ask did the "no big deal" just turn into a "big deal"? After all we are now at the lowest monthly sales total we have seen since January. We are 17% below the moving 12 month average and we have to start asking why. Is this a market correction or a big deal? A shift?

No doubt the fact that home inventory levels continue to drop and buyers have fewer and fewer opportunities to consider. Down again as of October 1st for the 7th straight month to new record lows. Prices had been going up but we have seen significant reversals over the past 90 days. As of October 1st, we have seen a 3 month decline of 8% in median single family home prices. Many sellers are priced ahead of the market and frankly they should be with the season coming if their property is in good condition. The best new opportunities are still getting snapped up quickly. On the bright side we did finally see pending homes sales increase for the first time in 7 months. But it was a slight uptick and we are still near record lows.

We ended this update last month with these words which still ring true;

"What is hard to determine is why Jupiter home sales are dropping. Is it because we continue to see lower home inventory numbers that dropped again as of September 1st for the 6th straight month? Maybe buyers' want to buy but can't find the right opportunity because of lack of selection. No doubt that plays a role and if inventory is the main reason we will see prices climb or at least hold steady. Or maybe demand is waning for other reasons in which case we should see prices fall and need to pay close attention to overall market strength. We enjoyed 8 straight months of monthly median gains in single family home prices until they backed off a bit last month"

It is starting to look like weakening demand may be playing a more significant role in this shift than we previously thought. Stay tuned as it is going to get interesting. Soon we will know if this is a big deal or not.

Fins up.....

Tom Priester
Principal Broker

Paradise Sharks Real Estate